This is Part 2 on a series focusing on the Florida State Senate and our efforts to take back the chamber. In Part 1 of the series, the current state of the Florida Senate was discussed, districts were put in categories based on Democratic strength, and our chances of picking up seats in those various categories was discussed.
Part 2 will focus on the “swing” or Category 4 districts for which elections will be held in 2008. These are districts where Gore took between 47-53% of the vote in 2000. There are four of these such districts that will have elections in 2008. They include the 7th, 11th, 13th, and 25th districts. At this time, it looks like Republican incumbents will be running for re-election in all of them, but this could change, particularly if Bill Young (US FL-10) were to retire from Congress. Two Republicans on this list could conceivably run for that seat.
State Senate Map Above
There are a couple things to keep in mind. It's not necessarily true that these will be our best pickup opportunities in 2008. There is at least one race that I know of in Category 5 that surely will be a prime target for Democrats in 2008, probably moreso than at least a couple of these. Category 5 races and other possibilities will be discussed in Part 3.
Also keep in mind the Democratic performance is based on Gore's results from 2000. The categories do not reflect on Nader's vote, which could possibly add to our total. In many districts, demographics or voter trends have changed since 2000. In some cases like the 25th district, as I discuss below, the area has trended more Democratic. In other districts, like the 11th, the area may be trending more Republican, based on other recent elections.
Finally, one thing that all these Republican incumbents have in common is that they were first elected in 2002, a year that favored Republicans in the state and nationally. This was the year Jeb Bush went on to beat Democrat Bill McBride 56 - 43% in the Governor's race. This likely gave lower-tier candidates a boost by several points. Unfortunately for us, many of these districts were open that year.
But now on to the future, which is looking very bright for Democrats. For a quick reminder, the Senate currently has 26 Republicans and 14 Democrats. We would need to pick up 6 seats for a tie and seven seats for a majority. We have until 2010 to take back the chamber before redistricting and many more seats will be open or contested in 2010, since senate elections are rotational, with half contested every two years.
25th district
Incumbent: Jeff Atwater
2000 Democratic Performance
Gore: 50%
Bush: 48%
Past State Senate Elections and Expenditures
2002 (Open)
Atwater (R): 55%, $748,000
Butterworth (D): 45%, $401,000
HD-25 Wiki
This is a district we can win and it has turned increasingly blue over the past few years. Al Gore actually won this district in the 2000 election and on top of that 2% went for Nader. It takes in the 22nd Congressional district, which was won by Democrat Ron Klein in 2006. In addition, the 22nd district actually went for Kerry stronger than it did for Gore, with both winning it. The district consists of eastern Palm Beach and Broward counties, including West Palm Beach, Boynton and Pompano Beaches, as well as the eastern stretches of Ft. Lauderdale and Oakland Park. Atwater won the seat in 2002 in an open seat election against the popular former Attorney General, Bob Butterworth. Atwater outspent Butterworth $748,000 to $400,000 in that election, a likely cause of our election loss, as well as the Republican-favored sentiment that year. If Atwater were to win re-election in 2008, he would likely become the Republican Majority Leader for the 2008-2010 session. In 2004, he faced no opponent in his second election to the Senate. Previously, he had won one term in the State House.
Robert Ostrov, an attorney, has already stepped up to challenge Atwater and former State Senator Skip Campbell and 2006 Democratic Attorney General nominee is considering a run. If Campbell were to run, he would offer a strong challenge with financial resources. In 2006, he actually won the district in his campaign for attorney general. He has also hinted that polls show that he could beat Atwater. Out of all the Category 4 seats, I would put this seat as our best pickup opportunity, especially if Campbell runs. Our major problem would be facing the Atwater fundraising machine. He’s already raised $564,000, of which $96,000 has been spent. Any Democratic candidate would need to be able to raise a good amount of money to compete. Campbell would likely be able to meet that challenge, so he definitely would be a good recruit. Our candidate would also likely have national Democratic sentiment and a strong candidate leading our ticket that would benefit them in this Democratic-leaning district in a year with no statewide races. I really think we can win this district and I would put it at “tossup” with a Campbell candidacy.
13th district
Incumbent: Dennis Jones
2000 Democratic Performance
Bush: 48%
Gore: 48%
Past State Senate Elections and Expenditures
2002 (Open)
Jones (R): 60%, $436,000
Kennedy (D): 40%, $53,000
HD-13 Wiki
The district consists completely of western Pinellas County and takes in parts of the 9th (Clearwater) and 10th (Seminole, Largo, and Dunedin) Congressional districts. Jones won the seat in 2002 in an open seat election and subsequently served as Majority Leader from 2002-2004. In his election win, he benefitted from the coattails of the state ticket and outspent the Democrat more than 8:1, so he has never been given a strong challenge for the seat. He has yet to face re-election in the Senate, though he won 11 terms in the State House. Jones has reported raising $153,000, of which $17,000 has been spent.
As of yet, no Democrat has entered the race. Jones has a long history in the district, so from that perspective challenging him could be difficult. However, there are many unknowns in this district. Despite being heavily outspent in 2002, Kennedy was still able to pull in 40%, so I would put that as our cellar support. If we financed a challenge against Jones, we could do much better than that and maybe even pull out a surprise, as Jones hasn’t faced an election since 2002 and doesn’t have the biggest fundraising numbers right now. It has also been widely rumored that Bill Young in the 10th district may retire and DCCC is poised to field a strong challenge to Gus Bilirakis in the 9th district. Democratic runs in those Congressional seats and national Democratic sentiment in 2008 could help a challenge in the state senate seat. This is a race we might want to start looking at.
7th district
Incumbent: Evelyn Lynn
2000 Democratic Performance
Bush: 51%
Gore: 47%
Past State Senate Elections and Expenditures
2002 (Open)
Lynn (R): 57%, $274,000
Ward (D): 43%, $226,000
HD-07 Wiki
The district consists of parts of Clay, Marion, Putnam, and Volusia Counties. It takes in pieces of the 3rd, 6th, 7th, and 24th Congressional districts. Lynn won the seat in 2002 in an open seat election battle in a year that favored Republicans, statewide and nationally. She had also served in the State House for four previous terms before running for the Senate. In the 2002 election, both parties spent about the same amount of money, but it's likely Lynn received a boost of a few points for statewide Republican sentiment. So far she’s amassed nearly $195,000 in fundraising this time, $13,000 of which has been spent. She raised around $136,000 of that money in the third quarter this year.
At the moment, there is no challenger in the district. The seat leans Republican for 2008, assuming Lynn runs. However, given the nature of the district, if a strong Democrat were to step up that could raise a large amount of money, then we could make this race competitive, especially since the presidential ticket will likely favor a Democrat, which could boost us up a couple points over that 2002 result. Some other factors that could favor us are a strong challenge to Feeney in the 24th district (New Smyrna Beach, Edgewater) by Suzanne Kosmas and strong spending and a big grassroots presence by Democrat Corrine Brown in the 3rd congressional district, which encompasses most of the state senate district. This is definitely somewhere where we should be able to compete and since Lynn hasn’t faced a challenge since 2002 this is a district we might want to challenge in 2008, when national sentiment should favor us.
11th district
Incumbent: Mike Fasano
2000 Democratic Performance
Bush: 49%
Gore: 49%
Past State Senate Elections and Expenditures
2002 (Open)
Fasano (R): 63%, $422,000
Cannon (D): 37%, $104,000
2004 (I)
Fasano (R): 65%, $272,000
Mattingly (D): 36%, $4, 600
HD-11 Wiki
The bulk of the population resides in western Pasco and northern Pinellas counties, with some population in western Hernando and Citrus counties. The district is within the 5th, 9th, and 10th Congressional districts. Bush did win those districts by greater margins in 2004 than 2000, so it’s possible the area may be trending more for the Republicans. Fasano first won the seat in 2002 in an open seat election in a year that favored Republicans, statewide and nationally. In that election, Fasano outspent the Democratic candidate 4:1 and basically in 2004 the Democrat spent nothing. Fasano gained 2% on his performance in 2004, in another year that favored Republicans statewide and nationally. Before entering the Senate, he won four terms in the State House.
There are currently two Democratic challengers for 2008, Richard Skandera and Fred Taylor, a Vietnam veteran, who applied in December to run. Neither has reported raising any money yet, though Taylor just entered the race. Fasano has raised $183,000, $2,400 of which has been spent. I would put this seat as likely Republican, assuming Fasano runs. Like several of the others in this category though, we’ve never really given the Republican a real challenge and if 2008 favors Democrats, then we could have a chance if we field a strong challenger. Other factors that could help our nominee would be Bill Young retiring in the 10th congressional district, which consists of the population center of Palm Harbor. A strong performance in the 9th district against Republican Gus Bilirakis could also help us in this district.
The End
That's it for this edition. I think we should definitely compete in all of the above districts. In 2008, we are going to have a strong candidate, who I expect to win Florida, leading our national ticket and there will be no statewide elections. This by itself would give us an advantage over 2002, when Republicans were elected in open seats upon a Jeb Bush route in the Governor's race. Republicans will no longer have this luxury, so we should make sure we take advantage of it and give them the challenges of their lives. In 2006, now State Senator Charlie Justice won in one of these Category 4 "Swing" districts. It's clear sentiment and momentum are now favoring us and in 2008 we can win more of these seats.
If anyone has anything to add or comments, that would be greatly appreciated.
Florida Senate Wiki Pages
Florida Senate District Information
Florida Fundraising Numbers
Florida Election Results
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7 comments:
Kosmas is merely the party hack and needs to get out of the race so that we can have a strong Candidate that will fight for the people and not the money. Her fundraising events are all money driven. She cannot seem to see the people through the money. She came to a meeting in Brevard County to do glad handing at our Christmas dinner/ meeting and as soon as time came for clean up and helping the toy drive person get the toys to her car. Kosmas was no where to be seen. Yet Clint Curtis helped with the clean up, the toys and the envelope stuffing. And he never asked for a dime to do so. He has always been there for the people and not the money PUPPETS. I will never vote for her and if Curtis looses I will not vote in the 2008 election. However even though I will not vote for Feeney I might drop a few signs and do some lit drops just to make sure Kosmas does not win.
While I like Clint Curtis a lot and wish him a lot of success, this line of thinking is very destructive and hurts more than helps. Even if your characterization of Kosmas is accurate, which I doubt, the idea that you'd help Feeney win if you didn't get your preferred nominee is terrible. Even if it were true that Kosmas was corrupt and a party hack, Feeney is even more corrupt and even more of a party hack, so Kosmas would still be a better candidate.
I'm glad you posted this anonymously, because I wouldn't want to know anyone who would do that.
Kenneth just so you know you really should not call names to people who are posting. It only makes you looks like a low class fool. As to Anonymous' comment. This is America is it not. We all HAVE the right to privacy. Just because you are a bully to those who list opinions in private does not make you a wonderful person. Simply a bully!!!
Secondly as to the Kosmas (NOT) thing. There are hundreds of us in This District 24 who feel the same way. Kosmas is merely a money pit for the DCCC I'll wager that most people are unaware that the Candidates are required to give them almost half of the money they bring in to obtain their endorsement. That is why they talked the hack into running because Curtis would not make his race all about the money for the party. His Race for 24 is only about the people. Yes he needs monitary help but his message is clear and not muttled by the all mighty dollar. That is the kind of Candidate that we need. I also will not vote for a hack and will not vote in the general of Curtis looses. The DCCC might want to think about what they have done to this District. We are many and not the few as they might think we are. We are gearing up to either vote against Kosmas or have a no show if she goes on to the General.
Now put that in your pipe and smoke it!!!!!
Wow Kenneth way to single handedly try to take away freedom of speech and the right to privacy away.
Anonymous I would like to say sorry for Kenneth but my time would be waisted.
I say all of us should post on his blog anonymously.
>Kenneth just so you know you really should not call names to people who are posting.
I didn't call anyone names.
>It only makes you looks like a low class fool.
As does accusing people of things they didn't actually do.
>This is America is it not. We all HAVE the right to privacy.
No, you do not have the right to anonymously post things on the Internet. This site and others allow it, but that doesn't mean you have a right to it.
>Just because you are a bully to those who list opinions in private does not make you a wonderful person. Simply a bully!!!
I'm not a bully because I want Feeney out and recognize that attacking Kosmas not only won't help get Feeney out, it won't help get Curtis in.
>There are hundreds of us in This District 24 who feel the same way.
I've heard from, I think, five. I've heard from more than that who like her. I don't know her personally, so I can't judge these things. Like I said, I like Clint a lot and support him. If he loses, though, I'll support Kosmas, because she is, no matter what you people say about her, better than Feeney.
>Kosmas is merely a money pit for the DCCC I'll wager that most people are
Considering that the DCCC knows much more about winning elections than you do, I'll trust their judgment over yours as to how to spend their money.
>unaware that the Candidates are required to give them almost half of the money they bring in to obtain their endorsement.
This is complete and utter nonsense. Not only is it not true, it isn't even legal to do this and I know for a fact it doesn't happen. How do I know that? Because Congressional candidates must publicly declare how much money they raise and how much they spend. Find me one spending item on any report for any Congressional candidate giving money to the DCCC. I'll wager you can't do it.
>That is why they talked the hack into running because Curtis would not make his race all about the money for the party.
Or because they thought, based on his past performance, that he couldn't win this time.
>His Race for 24 is only about the people.
I agree, that still doesn't mean he is the most viable candidate. He may be, but this doesn't mean that automatically.
>Yes he needs monitary help but his message is clear and not muttled by the all mighty dollar. That is the kind of Candidate that we need.
All of this may be true, but you still don't hep Clint by attacking Kosmas like this and being childish enough to say "if my candidate doesn't win, I'm taking my toys and going home."
>I also will not vote for a hack and will not vote in the general of Curtis looses.
Then you will help Feeney get re-elected. If you've done this in the past, you're part of the reason the Republicans have been in charge for so long.
>Now put that in your pipe and smoke it!!!!!
Do you really think you told me off with this comment? That somehow I've been shaken because you repeated the same self-defeating nonsense I've heard before? That I should give up because you are willing to destroy the future of the country and the state because your preferred candidate might not win? If you think these things, you are misguided.
>Wow Kenneth way to single handedly try to take away freedom of speech and the right to privacy away.
This is completely silly. I didn't try to take anything away. I didn't say the person couldn't speak or they couldn't have privacy. I simply said that I'm glad someone who makes such silly comments stays anonymous because I wouldn't want to know a person who said such things. You really, really need to work on your reading comprehension skills or come up with better responses to legitimate arguments.
>I say all of us should post on his blog anonymously.
Ooooohhhh, you got me! Seriously, if I really wanted to do any of the nonsense you say, I'd just delete the comments. I don't want to do that and don't plan on it. If I really wanted to engage in the activity that you suggest, though, I have the power, so your arguments are ludicrous.
If you do not like the anonymous thing then don't post on this site. Simply create your own web site and post there. You are one angry dude. I do know Suzanne Kosmas she is only nice on the outside. Deep down she is self centered and only cares about the money and not the people. She was recently going to drop out of the race because District 24 was not pulling in money for her (that shows where her loyality lies). So Ms Wasserman-Schultz and the DCCC threw fundraisers out of the District to convince her to stay in. They want her because they can tell her how to vote and Curtis won't play that game. He is more concerned about the people and how the outsourcing of America has effected peoples right to have work and home. Kosmas walked away from her seat and would not even help the Democrat running for her seat keep that seat. She simply said "I did my time"! I called her just before she left office due to a problem I was having and simply put she said I don't have to talk to you I am on my way out of this seat, call back when your new congress person gets in! This truly did happen and I am not the only one she has snubbed.
So Kenneth I am truly sorry that you are so angry about your support for this woman but not everyone feels that way. There are a lot of us who have met her and cannot in good faith vote for her.
There is a lot of support for Curtis out there just because people do not support your diary does not mean they are not there.
See Below
Kosmas lost the poll that was set up to slam Curtis in Oct 2007 Curtis won that poll with a win of 237 votes for him and Kosmas got 13 votes. So you see there are a lot of Curtis supporters in this District.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/10/13/01819/617
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/10/30/195338/80
These are just two of many sites that oppose Kosmas and support Curtis. Simply read the comments section. The party would have you think that she is the chosen one and therefore no one else is good enough. Enough is Enough, Restore America get rid of the money pits.
>If you do not like the anonymous thing then don't post on this site. Simply create your own web site and post there.
This is my site. I created it and am the primary person who posts to it.
>You are one angry dude.
No I'm not, there's no anger in any of my comments, just pragmatism and realism.
>I do know Suzanne Kosmas she is only nice on the outside. Deep down she is self centered and only cares about the money and not the people.
Sorry if I don't take this as gospel just because "anonymous" said it. Do you really think anyone is dumb enough to fall for that?
>She was recently going to drop out of the race because District 24 was not pulling in money for her (that shows where her loyality lies).
Source?
>So Ms Wasserman-Schultz and the DCCC threw fundraisers out of the District to convince her to stay in. They want her because they can tell her how to vote and Curtis won't play that game.
Source?
>He is more concerned about the people and how the outsourcing of America has effected peoples right to have work and home.
Like I have said repeatedly, I like Clint a lot and have talked to him on a number of occasions. I wish him success. But if he loses the primary, the only logical thing for his supporters to do is to support Kosmas, because she is infinitely better than Feeney. And no matter of personal attacks on Kosmas will help Clint win.
>Kosmas walked away from her seat and would not even help the Democrat running for her seat keep that seat. She simply said "I did my time"!
Source?
>I called her just before she left office due to a problem I was having and simply put she said I don't have to talk to you I am on my way out of this seat, call back when your new congress person gets in! This truly did happen and I am not the only one she has snubbed.
Again, the eyewitness testimony of "anonymous" doesn't sway me.
>So Kenneth I am truly sorry that you are so angry about your support for this woman but not everyone feels that way.
If you actually read anything I wrote, I never said I supported her.
>There are a lot of us who have met her and cannot in good faith vote for her.
Then I think your "good faith" isn't in all that much good faith. If you're voting for Clint because you don't like Feeney, then if he loses, you should vote for Kosmas because Feeney will still be just as bad.
>There is a lot of support for Curtis out there
Including me, like I've repeatedly said.
>just because people do not support your diary does not mean they are not there.
I didn't write a diary. I didn't support Kosmas. I didn't actually say any of the things you are accusing me of.
>Kosmas lost the poll that was set up to slam Curtis in Oct 2007 Curtis won that poll with a win of 237 votes for him and Kosmas got 13 votes. So you see there are a lot of Curtis supporters in this District.
There is 0 evidence that anyone voting in that poll lives in the District. It is an anonymous poll on a national website where many people know about Clint from earlier stories.
>These are just two of many sites that oppose Kosmas and support Curtis.
Those aren't separate sites, they're part of the same site. The owner of the site and most of the people who post there will definitely support Kosmas over Feeney. They don't oppose Kosmas at all, they oppose Feeney. They prefer Curtis, because they know about him, but that doesn't mean they oppose Kosmas.
>The party would have you think that she is the chosen one and therefore no one else is good enough.
Or they could have examined actual polling and real evidence and come to a different conclusion than yours.
>Enough is Enough, Restore America get rid of the money pits.
Sure, and the biggest money pit is the corruption of people like Feeney and the Republican party. Getting rid of Feeney is way more important that some silly opposition to Kosmas.
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